This time I write as a punter. I have played Horse and Sports Betting already more than 40 years. When I started it in 1970’s there was no discussion about responsible gaming issued so I was allowed to make my own bets with few marks (the Finnish currency those days). At the age of 16 – 17 I realized that I was much better Horse punter than an average customer and could make some money from betting. Finally there was period when I just made bets and lived with that. So, I have been serious, almost professional, punter but that was many years ago before I joined in Horse Betting company. I have understood already many years ago than I’m not able to spend enough time to analyze horses and other sports to make big money in Sports Betting. Despite of that I’m still spending lots of time, too much according to my wife, following sports and thinking about Sports Betting.
I was following some football matches yesterday evening and one of those matches was Ligue 1 game Reims – Amiens. Actually I’m not expert of the French football at all but based on my knowledge I noticed that home team Reims was better team and they were unlucky in the first period. The match was 0-2 after the first period and I just thought that there was quite high possibility that it would change during the second half. Based on my analyze and “feeling” I made bet on behalf of draw with odds 8,50 which I thought to be too high odds. I admit that it happens too seldom that I could beat the market and normally market is right and I’m wrong.
Anyhow what happened after that is the reason for this blog. The match went exactly in the way how I was expecting about that. Reims scored 1-2 in 70 mins and finally again in 84 mins. So match was 2-2 and there was about 8-9 minutes time to play. I was getting my money back with odds 8,50 – quite good win for me. I was happy but then for some reason I became a little bit worried and got “an idea” that Reims has so good spirit that they could score one more goal and then I could say goodbye to my potential winnings. As you know there is nice feature in Sports Betting called “cash out”. I think that it’s one of the best innovations in Sports Betting but I’m not normally using it because I think that I should trust on my analyzes and use cash out only in cases where I think that my live analyze is better than the market has – in practice that’s not a case almost ever. But yesterday I was too nervous and thought too much about short term money and made cash out. I won good money anyhow but of course match ended 2-2 and by waiting 7-8 more minutes I would get much more…
The gambler’s way of thinking is strange! I probably made good bet and won not only expected value but also real money, but I wasn’t so happy than I should be. Why? I think that I made stupid move when I used cash out and didn’t trust on my knowledge. I would like to be “cool guy” who knows what he is doing in Horse and Sports Betting and is ready to take risks when they are based on good analytics and will bring results in long term. Yesterday I wasn’t that kind of “cool guy” – a cock and that caused me almost sleepless night. My cash out wasn’t based on any analyze, it was made due to wrong reasons. I’m afraid that I’m rather chicken than cock and that disturbs me a lot!
Sports Betting gives at its best excellent excitement to customers. I have already earlier tried to describe how different customer groups there are in that business. I’m mentally used to be among those “sharks” but in practice I’m already far away from that group. I should admit that I’m not so talent anymore or if I think that in a little bit more positive way, I don’t have enough time to make analyzes. So, I could be better one IF I would have time… That IF causes always too many problems. You could explain many things with that and at the same time refuse to admit the realistic situation. When you are doing that you will probably make more mistakes and finally you will be totally out of business. It doesn’t mean that you couldn’t enjoy in Sports Betting, of course you can. You should know how capable you are and balance your stakes to that level not to the “wannabe-level” or in my case to the level where I used to be 20 – 30 years ago.
I would like to be young talent cock and I’m afraid of being a chicken. Instead of that I now trying to think about new way – maybe I’m old cock who was in old way really capable and now I have became older and not so capable anymore. At least I know what it is needed to be a cock!
Gambling Guru 